Making Decisions Under Uncertainty with Niklas Luhmann: Insights for Managing Emergencies

Introduction

This is the sixth post in my ongoing series about moving theory to practice in the management of incidents. This post focuses on the decision-making concept of uncertainty absorption relevant to anyone making decisions under uncertainty and especially to those making decisions about what others should do. I first came across the concept of uncertainty absorption in a chapter from David Seidl (2006) on the work of Niklas Luhmann. Seidl notes Luhmann borrows the concept from March and Simon (1993) who write

Uncertainty absorption takes place when inferences are drawn from a body of evidence and the inferences, instead of the evidence itself, are then communicated (p.186).

From March and Simon's (1993) explanation above, uncertainty absorption is a process where one draws inferences from available evidence and then communicates the inferences to someone else. Not communicated in the process is the evidence used to draw the inferences that could be used to indicate the level of …